The Business Reality Index
View data
| Wave | Index |
|---|---|
| Wave one, 2026 | 37 |
Key findings
- The Business Reality Index is 37.
- It rises with size, from 24 for organisations with 50 to 249 employees to 55 for those with 5,000 or more.
- It rises with turnover, from 24 under £5m to 49 at £500m and above.
- Confidence tells you little about it. Confident organisations score 38.5 and unconfident ones 34.4.
What is the Business Reality Index?
The Business Reality Index is a single score that shows how strong UK businesses are going into the year ahead. It is calculated by The Reality Department from the survey responses, using our own proprietary method.
It exists because confidence surveys ask leaders how they feel. The Index asks what is in place.
How does the Index vary by business size?
Sharply. Organisations with 50 to 249 employees score 24. Those with 250 to 999 score 37, in line with the overall figure. It rises to 47 for 1,000 to 4,999 employees and 55 for 5,000 or more.
The largest organisations score more than twice the smallest
Business Reality Index by number of employees
View data
| Group | Index (0 to 100) |
|---|---|
| All organisations | 37 |
| 50 to 249 | 24 |
| 250 to 999 | 37 |
| 1,000 to 4,999 | 47 |
| 5,000+ | 55 |
How does the Index vary by turnover?
It climbs at every step, with the largest jump at the bottom. Organisations turning over less than £5m score 24. Between £5m and £24.9m the score is 32, a rise of eight points. It reaches 49 at £500m and above.
The Index rises at every step up in turnover
Business Reality Index by annual turnover
View data
| Group | Index (0 to 100) |
|---|---|
| Under £5m | 24 |
| £5m to £24.9m | 32 |
| £25m to £49.9m | 36 |
| £50m to £99.9m | 42 |
| £100m to £499.9m | 47 |
| £500m+ | 49 |
Does confidence predict strength?
Barely. Organisations that are confident about growth score 38.5. Those that are not score 34.4. The correlation between confidence and the Index is 0.099, which is close to none.
Six in ten leaders (61%) are confident about growth. More than half of them score below the Index average.
Confident businesses are barely stronger than unconfident ones
Business Reality Index by growth confidence
View data
| Answer | Index (0 to 100) |
|---|---|
| Confident about growth | 38.5 |
| Not confident about growth | 34.4 |
What this means
Most business surveys report a mood. A mood is useful, but it is not a measure of readiness, and this data shows the two have almost nothing to do with each other.
If you lead a business, the question is which number you are managing to. If you advise, lend to or insure businesses, a confident client is not the same as a strong one.
Wave two will show whether the Index has moved, and whether the risks leaders named for 2026 were the ones that happened.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Business Reality Index?
A score out of 100, published by The Reality Department, that measures how strong UK businesses are. In wave one (2026) it stands at 37.
Is business confidence a good measure of business strength?
No. In the Business Reality Index, the correlation between growth confidence and the Index score is 0.099. Confident organisations score 38.5 and unconfident ones 34.4.
Are larger businesses stronger?
Yes. Organisations with 5,000 or more employees score 55, against 24 for those with 50 to 249.
Methodology
The Reality Department surveyed 500 senior decision-makers at UK organisations employing 50 or more people. Quotas were set by business size, sector and region. Fieldwork: August 2026. The Index is calculated using a proprietary method.
Related: Business confidence and resilience and The attention gap
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